Effects of the United States Economic Crisis on the Indonesian Stock and Trade Exchange

April 29, 2020

The United States economy is the largest economy in the world with a GDP of USD 15.5 trillion at the end of 2011 (a quarter of world GDP). Before the crisis in 2008, stable economic growth led to low unemployment and inflation in the United States. In early 2007, the unemployment rate in the United States was 4.4% with an inflation rate of 2.1%. Whereas during the 2008 crisis, the unemployment rate in the United States increased to 6.8% with an inflation rate of 5.6% 3.

In mid-2007, the United States was hit by the subprime mortgage crisis and peaked in September 2008, which was marked by the announcement of the bankruptcy of several financial institutions. The beginning of the problem occurred in the period 2000-2001, when the dotcom4 companies in the United States collapsed, so the companies that issued the shares were unable to pay loans to banks. To overcome this, the Fed (US Central Bank) lowered interest rates. Low interest rates are utilized by developers and housing finance companies. Houses built by developers and financed by housing finance companies are cheap houses, sold to low-income groups who do not have adequate financial guarantees. With the collapse of the value of the shares of these companies, banks face defaults from debtors (developers and housing finance companies).
According to Crockett (1997), financial stability is closely related to the health of an economy. The healthier the financial sector in a country, the healthier the economy, and vice versa. Thus the development of the financial sector, including the capital market, is one indicator that needs attention to maintain the health or stability of the economy. The movement of stock prices, bonds, and so on in a country's capital market is caused by investors' perceptions of the condition of the capital market. This perception will ultimately affect investment funds that enter the country, thereby affecting the state of the country's economy. This not only happened in the United States, but also hit Europe and Asia, including Indonesia.
The Rupiah exchange rate against the USD began to decline since mid-2008 and continues to depreciate until it reaches the lowest level at the beginning of 2009, amounting to Rp. 11,900 per 1 USD. Changes in exchange rates that occur, both appreciation and depreciation will affect export import activities in the country, because the USD is still the currency that dominates global trade payments.
An increase or decrease in exports and imports will affect state revenues derived from international trade taxes. The depreciation of the rupiah in mid-2008 led to an increase in exports which affected revenue from export duties in particular and international trade taxes in general. Changes in the value of exports and imports also affect Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The production index is an economic indicator that is often used to replace GDP due to the monthly publication of the data.

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